Since last year, the macro-environment at home and abroad has been complex and changeable, the prices of cotton and cotton yarn have been falling continuously, the price difference between inside and outside is deeply inverted, and the processing profit even once showed a negative number. The development of the cotton textile industry and the operation of enterprises are facing enormous pressure . In this context, a reporter from Futures Daily learned that the futures market has played an important role as a "stabilizer" and "safe haven" in serving the stable operation of cotton industry chain enterprises and avoiding risks.
On March 31, the relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange stated at the 1st Cotton (Zhengzhou) Summit Forum hosted by Guotai Junan Futures and co-organized by Zhengzhou Cotton Trading Market that at present, more than 80% of domestic cotton Almost all trade refers to futures prices. Cotton futures prices have become an important basis for spot pricing and product situation research and judgment. Cotton futures warehouse receipts have also become an important part of domestic cotton commercial stocks, and basis prices have become the mainstream trend in the cotton market.
"The cotton industry chain is relatively long. With the listing and trading of textile derivatives including cotton, cotton yarn, PTA ( 6344 , -32.00 , -0.50% ) , staple fiber futures and some option instruments, upstream and downstream enterprises in the cotton industry chain can choose There are more risk-avoiding tools.” Zhang Wentian, general manager of Guotai Junan Futures Henan Branch, said that cotton industry chain companies have generally accepted and promoted the combination of futures and cash. The opening up of futures and spot prices is not only conducive to stabilizing the price of cotton textiles, but also conducive to smoothing the upstream and downstream of the industry.
Recently, the disturbance of bulk commodities by overseas macro factors has eased. Driven by multiple favorable factors such as cost support and demand improvement, cotton futures varieties have ushered in a phased recovery market. Wang Xiao, assistant director of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, said that 2023 is the second half of overseas interest rate hikes and the first half of China's economic recovery, and it is very important to understand the difference in expectations. From the perspective of the international market, on the one hand, inflation in the United States is gradually spreading from commodity inflation to service industry inflation. Stubborn inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes are one of the focuses of the current market game. In this case, the sensitivity of commodities to interest rate hikes Lower, but the upper pressure remains. On the other hand, the U.S. labor market remains resilient, wage growth is well above the trend line, and high job vacancies keep U.S. wage growth at a high level. "Therefore, although the Fed may gradually pause interest rate hikes, interest rate cuts may be 'in the foreseeable future', and the follow-up performance of employment and inflation data will become a key factor in whether the Fed decides to cut interest rates." Wang Xiao believes that as long as the Fed's tightening efforts cannot bridge the gap between commodity supply and demand If the speed is narrowed, it will be difficult to eliminate the tightening expectations, and if the tightening expectations cannot be eliminated, it will continue to suppress the demand side. The process of seeking a soft landing for the US economy is no different from a balance on a steel rope. Therefore, the risk preference of the financial market is the anchor that determines whether the actual economic data is good or bad.
Wang Haoyu, general manager of Haorui Yifan (Beijing) Trading Co., Ltd., said that from the perspective of the inventory cycle, the current domestic cotton market destocking cycle has obviously ended, and market participants have gradually turned to inventory reconstruction, but their attitude is cautious. The overseas cotton market has not yet completed the destocking cycle, but there have been structural changes in the purchasing method, cycle, and flow direction of the market.
"According to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), USDA continues to lower its inventory forecast. In January 2023, the global cotton inventory at the end of the period was 19.396 million tons, a decrease of 185,000 tons from the previous month, or a decrease of 0.9%." Wang Haoyu believes that from the basic In terms of poor quality and cotton quality, American cotton is still the most competitive export variety in the rest of 2022/2023, and the sales of new Australian cotton are greatly affected by Sino-Australian relations. (Reporter Zhao Bin)